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· Posted on
February 21, 2024

AustralianSuper reckons the $18.7 billion offer for Origin Energy is more outdated than a video store on every corner

Origin's largest shareholder AustralianSuper believes the current takeover bid is "substantially below its long-term value."

What's the key learning?

  • Since March, Origin's business has seen a major turnaround; it has upgraded its profit guidance twice.
  • AustralianSuper has purchased more shares in Origin Energy to have more control over its future ownership, and it expects to receive an improved acquisition offer.
  • The delay has given Origin shareholders more time to evaluate the deal and see that the company's future performance is actually looking strong.

👉 Background: Back in March this year, international investors, Brookfield and EIG Partners, made an $18.7 billion offer for Origin Energy... which was accepted by the board.. but not yet accepted by the ACCC and Origin's shareholders.

👉 What happened: But since March, Origin's business has seen a major turnaround. In fact, Origin has upgraded its profit guidance twice. So now, Origin's largest shareholder AustralianSuper believes the current takeover bid is "substantially below its long-term value."

👉 What else: Now, AustralianSuper has purchased more shares in Origin Energy to have more control over its future ownership. Their expectation is to receive an improved acquisition offer... or otherwise reject the current offer.

What's the key learning?

💡Time kills all deals. But in this case, time might just be Origin Energy's best friend.

💡The ACCC has planned to make their decision on this acquisition by October 10th 2023. And this delay has given Origin shareholders more time to evaluate the deal and see that the company's future performance is actually looking strong.

💡 And, that makes the current takeover offer seem inadequate. To make matters worse, the initial offer has decreased in value because it was actually offered in US dollars - which has softened against the Australian currency.

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