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· Posted on
November 24, 2025

Monash IVF’s guidance downgrade shows that trust issues in fertility can seriously hurt patient numbers

Monash IVF cuts earnings again after its embryo mix-ups, shares slump—then suddenly surge 37% after rejecting a $300M takeover bid.

What's the key learning?

  • When a business deals with something as sensitive as creating life, any breach of trust hits harder than numbers and takes far longer to repair.
  • Reputation crises can spiral beyond financial pain... once public confidence cracks, the fallout can echo for years, as Boeing proved.
  • Monash IVF’s volatility shows that when trust wobbles, fresh ownership or a reset becomes an attractive path... especially to opportunistic private equity.

Background: Monash IVF is the ASX-listed fertility group offering IVF, egg freezing, genetic testing and more. Earlier this year, the company suffered two serious embryo mix-up incidents, including one that wasn’t discovered until two years after the baby was born.  

What happened: Now, Monash IVF has now reported weaker-than-expected performance for the first four months of the financial year. The company has cut its full-year earnings guidance again, down another 11%, from $27.5 million to $20 million. Investors didn’t take it well: shares dropped 12% on the update.

What else: But earlier today, Monash IVF's shares soared after they rejected a $300 million takeover bid from a private equity investor. Net minute: shares up 37%. It's been a hell of a rollercoaster!


What's the key learning?

💡For industries that relate to life and death scenarios, trust is its entire business model. When that trust breaks, the road back is long, slow and very, very expensive.

💡Reputation damage compounds faster than revenue damage. Similarly, Boeing’s 737 Max crisis also ruined its reputation. But not only that, it wiped 60% off its market value, grounded fleets and scared passengers from flying on Boeing. To this day, it still hasn’t climbed back to its former highs.

💡Monash IVF isn’t just recovering from a bad quarter and "stiff competition", it’s recovering from a major breach of trust. And sometimes, the best way to rebuild is by bringing in a new owner with a clean slate. And clearly, private equity investors are circling.

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