‍👉 Background: Ever since ChatGPT hit the consumer-scene in November 2022, AI chatbots have become all the rage. In fact, AI made up 64% of US startup deal value in the first half of 2025.

👉 What happened: A new AI startup, that was founded in February this year, named Thinking Machines Lab, has just announced a $2 billion USD capital raise at a $12 billion valuation USD. The crazy part? It has no products… and no revenue... not a single chatbot to speak of… yet.

👉 What else: The capital was raised off the back of its potential as well as the talent in the team. It founded by former OpenAI exec Mira Murati. Almost two-thirds of Thinking Machines’ team is made up of former OpenAI employees. And in 2025, “I used to work at OpenAI” is the new “I went to Harvard”.

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‍What's the key learning?

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‍💡In traditional business, a company’s valuation reflects its earnings or assets. But in emerging tech like AI, talent has become a key part of the product. Venture Capitalists often take into account what the team could build, and how big the market for their eventual product could be.

💡Other AI labs formed by OpenAI alumni have a good track record.

• Anthoropic, which was also founded by former OpenAI employees is currently in the process of raising capital at a $100 billion USD valuation.
• Safe SuperIntelligence, also started by a former OpenAI co-founder, who closed a round in April this year at a $32 billion USD.

💡So the VCs are betting that if Thinking Machines captures even a small slice of the future AI market, the return will be massive.